How accurate is IPO GMP?

The short answer

Across 208 Indian IPOs that listed between January and October 2026 — 101 Mainboard and 107 SME — this site recorded a grey market premium before the issue listed and the price it actually opened at. GMP called the direction correctly on 155 of 183 issues that did not open exactly flat, or 85%. It was far less reliable on the size of the move: the median call was off by 6.4 percentage points and the average by 10.8, with only 90 of 208 landing within 5 points of the real listing. The premium was too optimistic on 109 issues and too pessimistic on 97, so the error is not a consistent bias you can correct for.

Put plainly: treat the premium as a read on sentiment, not as a price. It is reasonable evidence that an issue will open up rather than down. It is weak evidence of by how much, and on SME issues it can be wrong by more than the entire gain it predicted.

Where the premium was most wrong

Premium was far too high

• Black Opal Consultants carried a grey market premium of ₹80 on an issue price of ₹197, implying a listing around ₹277 (+40.6%). It opened at ₹200, +1.5% — 39.1 points below what the grey market implied.
• Skyways Air carried a grey market premium of ₹33 on an issue price of ₹138, implying a listing around ₹171 (+23.9%). It opened at ₹124, -10.1% — 34.1 points below what the grey market implied.
• Hy-Tech Engineers carried a grey market premium of ₹39 on an issue price of ₹53, implying a listing around ₹92 (+73.6%). It opened at ₹75, +41.5% — 32.1 points below what the grey market implied.
• Waterways Leisure Tourism carried a grey market premium of ₹-51 on an issue price of ₹808, implying a listing around ₹757 (-6.3%). It opened at ₹500, -38.1% — 31.8 points below what the grey market implied.
• Kanohar Electricals carried a grey market premium of ₹240 on an issue price of ₹632, implying a listing around ₹872 (+38.0%). It opened at ₹685.5, +8.5% — 29.5 points below what the grey market implied.

Premium was far too low

• Teja Engineering Industries carried a grey market premium of ₹36 on an issue price of ₹220, implying a listing around ₹256 (+16.4%). It opened at ₹418, +90.0% — 73.6 points above what the grey market implied.
• Sollfege Smart Electronics carried a grey market premium of ₹10 on an issue price of ₹55, implying a listing around ₹65 (+18.2%). It opened at ₹104.4, +89.8% — 71.6 points above what the grey market implied.
• SpectraA Technology Solutions carried a grey market premium of ₹45 on an issue price of ₹118, implying a listing around ₹163 (+38.1%). It opened at ₹224.2, +90.0% — 51.9 points above what the grey market implied.
• Adroit Industries carried a grey market premium of ₹37 on an issue price of ₹134, implying a listing around ₹171 (+27.6%). It opened at ₹235, +75.4% — 47.8 points above what the grey market implied.
• Merritronix carried a grey market premium of ₹68 on an issue price of ₹149, implying a listing around ₹217 (+45.6%). It opened at ₹283.1, +90.0% — 44.4 points above what the grey market implied.

How this is measured

• "We said" is the last grey market premium recorded on this site while the issue was still live, expressed as a percentage of the issue price. It is frozen the moment an issue lists. Our data sources each publish their own revised "final GMP" after the outcome is known, and those revisions are rejected on import — otherwise every call here would quietly drift toward being correct.
• "Listed" is the opening price on listing day against the same issue price. Day-one closing prices are on each IPO's own page and are not used here.
• "Miss" is the difference in percentage points. A positive number means the premium was too optimistic.
• Direction counts only the 183 issues that did not open exactly at the issue price. 25 opened exactly flat and are excluded from that figure rather than scored, since a flat open is neither the gain a premium implied nor the discount a zero premium implied.
• 84 further listed issues in our database are not counted, because we never recorded a premium for them while they were live or we hold no listing price. They are excluded rather than estimated.